Happy new year, everyone. I hope everyone has a great time with your family and friends, virtually or physically. It depends on which countries you live in, I suppose. 2020 was over, and I am curious about what will happen this year. Since last week, I have been thinking about this question again and again. I want to get back to my word and reflect on it with myself the next year. So, I will share my notes here as my record.
I am not optimistic about this year yet. I hope the global pandemic is over as soon as possible. However, realistically speaking, the situation might be tough. Even there is a vaccine already, it may take a while for everyone to get it as there is no enough supply. The Vaccine’s mutation speed to get a new version of them and the speed or cycle that people can get another vaccine after authorized it by the government. I am not sure how Covid’s mutation affects vaccine effectiveness. It may take more time. I took a PCR test last year. Last week, a few companies announced the test kit at a much lower price, around $20 for a test kit than before. I remembered that the test I took was over $200 per test. This year will be more tests, which it should have been. And, summertime after everyone will get a vaccine, it will be a normal life. However, in September or October, there is another lockdown again. At least, we need to get a vaccine three times this year. And winter will be similar to this year. It might be another grant to support all citizens for the government, and more financial supports to SMBs both protect an economy and employment.
Last year, it was quite hectic. In hindsight, many companies successfully adapted to a new remote work environment. It will continue to work from home. Again, during the summertime, it might be going to a normal situation; however, many companies implemented the new work environment and software. Thus, the new normal will be continuous virtually. You may need to go to the office once or twice a week depends on the department you work in and the companies you work for. Many companies may not need the full-capacity of office space for the entire workforce. Therefore, the company may be going to reduce office space by one third. It will not be 100% of the remote environment if you work for software companies as I did 100% remote at my previous company. For example, if you do a sale activity, it will be done hybrid model: The first few instructions will be an online meeting, and closing will be done by a physical appointment, especially if you are selling something to big corporates.
Do you feel comfortable to travel or spend time as it was before? Probably, the answers are still quite negative at this moment. Even if you want to travel overseas, international flights may require that everyone needs to have a vaccine proof and test result (24–72 hours before your flights). How about after getting the Vaccine? Many people may think about spending time normally. So, during the summertime, people may spend time dining with their friends and family, more social events, and more trips. But, after the summer, we may need to go back to our current life. My prediction is to continue the life we have now, unfortunately.
Early-stage investments: private tech market
It will be more investment in early-stage startups, as many companies went public last year. Many economists and VCs predicted or said to their portfolios that it is important to have a much longer runway at the beginning of last year. However, as there were more liquidation events: people continue to invest in private tech companies. This type of asset class will be popular among family offices and held high.
IPO of tech companies: public teck market
Last year was the year of IPOs. How many famous companies went to the public last year? Airbnb, DoorDash, Wish, C3.ai, Snowflake, Plantir Technology, Asana, Lemonade, Unity, etc. NEWS LINK FROM Crunchbase news. My prediction is that tech companies’ public share prices will be high. And, the number of IPOs will maintain high. The companies’ names went public last year via SPAC: Luminar (Autonomous Vehicle and lidar tech company), Nikola (heavy-duty transport trucks using hybrid hydrogen-electric powertrains). NEWS LINK FROM Crunchbase news. And more SPACs. Thus, less mature companies will go public. They will slowly become mature and solid performance companies.
Overall, 2021 will be slightly better and more human communication. The trend of remote work, automation, and more Tech industry will maintain a high stake both privately and publically. We will continue our life the way it is right now. So, more patient.